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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP)
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To: Allan Van Wagner who wrote (892)2/4/1998 9:54:00 AM
From: Tony van Werkhooven   of 2068
 
Couple of comments:
1. the 50-69% rate increases for individual customers is amazing- an indication of how bad their information systems were for monitoring the business. Using 1200/year/member (I don't know how good this is), you get that they are currently running a shortfall on this segment of the business in the range of 1200*.5*55,000members, or 33 Million/year
2. This suggests that there may be problems with pricing of their employer based business also. A lot of this business would have renewed on 1/1. So will be interesting to see if there are off anniversary rate increases and the order of magnitude.
3. Prudential is in the process of marketing their health business. We may see that the loser in that process get seriously interested in Oxford.
4. The arbitration claim recently filed was for 140 million. Oxford acknowledged 45 million (todays WSJ Interactive). Presumably Oxford carries the 45 Million as a liability. Any shortfall will hit 1998 earnings.
5. 200 Million in additional insurance co/hmo capital could result in issuance of approx. 14 million more shares, or about 18% of the current outstanding shares.

Overall, it would not surprise me (IMHO) to see net losses reported through 1998 as OXHP struggles with identifying and addressing the problems.
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