US interests in a stable Iraq, well positioned within the US orbit, are much more important to the Bush administration leadership than a democratic Iraq, moving out of its orbit. Like Iran in 53, Chile in the early 70s, and a rather long list of other places, self interest trumps democracy, self determination, etc., particularly in regional areas.
One of the great obstacles to the success of American policies in the developing world has been the tendency to confuse order with stability. Change always brings a certain amount of instability. Imposing order on societies that need change - and the instability it brings - only builds the pressure for change, and forces it into more radical venues.
I do not see Iraq as an example of this phenomenon at this moment, but it will probably become on. I see a peaceful, orderly transition to democracy as exceedingly unlikely, and I think that sooner or later we will be forced to choose between order - which sometimes can only be maintained through an undemocratic use of force - and democracy. |
