Brian,
I'd like to respond, the cost of semi equipment has nearly doubled in
4 years and the cost of a new state of the art fab is about $3-4 BILLION. IMO Intel will not build another 8" fab but will wait till
12" equipment is fully available and functional. 300mm equipment design is still ongoing and the competition will be fierce to get the
endorsement of Intel. Once Intel locks in on the "standard" equipment
set it becomes the "tool of record" and will be promoted to all other
new manufacturing sites. Intel uses the same equipment set and same process and controls for each product they make, they don't allow
changes once the process is "locked", this insures identical fabrication techniques and identical production efficiency with their
product.
A 12" fab is projected to cost upwards of $8-$10 Billion fully functional by year 2000, with equipment installed, that's a lot of CPU's and flash memory required to pay for it.
My belief is that Intel is evaluating the available 300mm toolsets and proding the manufacturers to improve their origional designs to make them more robust and reliable before committing to a final decision. This could take many months, and all the necessary equipment
must be ready at about the same time, this includes, etch, cmp, lithography, implant, masks, etc, etc., before they get a truly workable equipment set of record.
Remember the quote: "No one wants to be known as the company who
built the last 8" fab", I could add, "No one wants to be known as
the company that built the 1st 12" fab that didn't work."
Just my opinion,
BB
them more |
