Yo Chaz,
<< For the fun of it, are you waiting with bated breath for the appearance of Nokia's CDMA 1x handsets and appliances as well? <<G>> >>
The answer to the above is no. It is a priority, but a low one.
One step at a time. <g>
First step is getting Verizon qualification on the IS-95A tri-mode 5185i so that shipments of the 6185i can be triggered. I am going to assume that there will be a Sprint version of the 6185i, although I can't back that up.
Assuming (above happens) that is going to lead to some nice increased market share of CDMA for Nokia this year, perhaps high teens from high single digit. Significant if that is achieved.
BTW: If Nokia fails in that necessary objective (I don't think they will), I will reexamine my NOK position. I hold Kings lightly. If they achieve it, I will reexamine and in conjunction with other indicators, probably add.
In the larger scheme of things the GPRS lineup becomes the next step. The market is huge. The 1x market comparatively is small, and CDMA growth is somewhat stalled, everywhere but the Americas, and will be till we get to W-CDMA.
A final step (for the all important Americas) will be getting to 1xRTT. Next year is fine. A six to 9 month differential to market will not hurt Nokia relative to increasing CDMA market share.
We are not going to see a lot of 1x implemented in the Americas in 2001.
I don't see US carriers taking delivery of the MSM5000 trial chip and we are looking probably at end of summer before we see many MSM5100 handsets trickle on to ALLTEL, Verizon, Sprint PCS shelves.
That is my personal outlook going into this transition (voice to data) year.
... meantime Nokia earnings (which I think will be great) this week. How the analysts interpret Nokia guidance is going to have a major impact, IMO, on the wireless sector as a whole.
- Eric - |
