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I think I agree with all of your assessments on Amazon. Good luck to all shorts.
I originally bought LMVTX in 1996 as my first investment freshman year of college. It has performed well for me, and I actually have withdrawn 52% of my principle investment. I have been questioning for so many months what the heck Miller is doing, particularly with AOL. Perhaps it is time to take the rest off the table. It is hard to do though for something that has performed so well.
At my age of course, I also do not really have enough assets to make a diversified portfolio with stocks of my own choosing (without incurring large trading costs percentage wise).
I bought LMVTX because I liked the original top ten holdings at that time, particularly Dell computer. Managers do not typically outperform for more than a decade and Miller's performance has been driven by two stocks in particular: Dell and AOL. Furthermore, it seems that of all the mutual fund managers, statistically you will have 0 to 3 that will outperform the market every year for 10 years. Lynch was one, now Miller is one. And Buffett is the best investor because he knows the financials of every company on the NYSE in his head. Lets say Buffett's knowledge is equal to ABCD. Four analysts of lesser knowledge may have A, B, C, and D. But collectively in group discussion I don't think they could come to better conclusions than Buffett on his own. Besides, you have to multiply ABCD by E (Munger) :)
JRH |
