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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER
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To: Nancy who wrote (8984)2/16/2001 7:09:44 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann   of 11051
 
markets went down after hours - sad outlook?

...without overwhelming fundamtental news:

OK, this NT-warning sounds ugly - but new? Now we've learned again that NT is not the great exception under telcoms - surprise?

And DELL? I read the whole statement and it sounds quite strong to me. More, there's another clear hint to solid server-demand. Dell brougth - compared to f.e. CPQ or GTW - sensational numbers esp. for the last quarter. (after this DELL is again my favorite (#2 next to AMD), I will try to get some bargains next week)

The after-hours reaction?

The servers-winners lost:

Dell close 25 after hours 23 11/16
Sunw close 27 3/16 after hours 26 1/2
IBM close 116 7/8 after hours 115

The marketshare-losers lost too:

HWP close 36.35 after hours 34.51
GTW close 20.95 after hours 20

The CPU's lost:

AMD close 26.23 after hours 25.6
INTC close 35 13/16 after hours 35 1/4
(at least here ("Servers <=> Intel-CPU's") a certain logic can be read)

Of cours, NT is champion-loser:

NT close 29.75 after hours 22.34
and...
CSCO close 30 13/16 after hours 28 3/8
still is expensive!

It's the usual picture: Unspecific reaction over whole sectors, blind selling after blind buying, use of technical indicators in a technical bad describable market-situation.

Guess when today Robinsons & Freitags leave Nancy-Island* they will buy pharmaceutics and oil again (throwing down this tasty cocktail with Coke's soon coming drug "PE100"). Technic-believers will not enter again before jan 2 - lines are "tested"; but that should happen during coming week, and which fundamentals could track markets up next week? (Expect Greenspan's next "reaction" again at St. Claus <g>)

Give me hope, Susanna! (Susanna? can't remember each name..)

Jury

* "reversal":

nasd moved from about -52% to about -44% (seen from his heights) - that was a (probably temporary) compensation of 8% of total loss;

how different charts look depending on time-frame:

when I'm looking at a 60-min-chart it's looking like the begin of a up-trading-range with a down-break at jan 14.
when I'm looking at a daily-chart (subsuming the above mentioned retest) I read Nancy's island.
when I'm looking at a monthly chart it's just going through a reversal short (1 month) after the deepest point.

Give us the longterm-sight of past years back, establish a minimum-age for investors/traders and we will face again healthier markets?
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