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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: DataBits who wrote (89886)4/10/2001 9:43:12 PM
From: rails99   of 95453
 
Hello DB: OT/
Things look better for the SOX people today. Was it sqeezing the shorts day ar a little rally?

My take on the general market is this: No real increase in earnings. No increased buying of shares by insiders. No real drop in inflation. Commodity prices increasing and loss of sales volumes. Raw materials costs increasing. Bottom line net profits falling all around me. No rebound yet for the general market. The S&P and DOW charts have not improved markedly over a quarter on the 3 year chart look. Gold is rising in demand is reflected in the individual stock charts. No big gold rally is going to be evident, until "overnight" gold price hits 300 and keeps going. It will seem like one just wakes up to find they missed the gold rally, cause it will sneak up on you. You will say each day, that it won't go higher, but it will.

This recession is evident. Ask the CEOs at Motorola or GE. This market drop is more pronounced than '82-4 or '98. This oil price situation is exactly like '73 thru '75. Go to the OPEC web site and read the history from '73 forward. It reads like what has happened here lately. OPEC raises prices, prices hurt earnings, markets drop, fed raises rates to fight the oil inflation and OPEC cut production, etc. The fed raised and lowered rates over the next eight years to fight the high cost of oil and the resulting inflation. Nixon set price freeze programs in place. Been hearing this already in California as of late. OPEC documents the frustration of modification of production levels versus price of oil all in the context of "what will the dollar buy for me today"? The US role in the MidEast is the cog in the wheel of the global economic machine. Looks to me Bush is going to turn on the power and pump some local gas and oil. What else is there to do? Meanwhile, each penny the dollar drops in value due to oil inflation means: Another reason for the FED and OPEC to keep fighting over "What will the dollar buy me today". The fed drops rates and OPEC cuts production, the fed raises rates and OPEC primes another pump.

Good luck to you. Keep me up to date on what you like next for trades in the market.

PS: One important thing to remember is this Sept and Oct will repeat last year as to crash and burn in the market. Watch the three year DOW and S&P charts to find out when we hit the "bottom". It wont be on one days action. It will appear to have developed over 10 days action. Advancers will lead decliners heavy for eight to ten days to mark the next bull run.

Take care;
Rails
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