None taken Dale. Amazon is a big fish that I won't short over here. The intellectual capital that they're building up with the top-tier executives they're pulling from various organizations leaves them as a worthy competitor. Also with their size, I'm pretty sure that scale economies have begun to work in their favor.
I agree B2C has sucked, and my positions as of recently make the claim that it will continue to suck, and will suck even more. If this 80% failure net does indeed catch, then that's the side of the market I want to be playing on.
I think there are still decent shorts out there. Having a stock move from $12 to $8 is still the same ratio as one that moves from $50 to $33, only I'm making the bet that odds increasingly move in my favor from the short side for these weaker stocks as excessive bullishness is beaten out of the issue. It's also a recognized phenomenon that institutions aren't as apt to play low priced stocks, which only adds one more factor in my favor IMO. I seek areas where demand may be weak and supply in increasing quantity.
I think it's a fair statement to say that in this market, the strong have gotten stronger, and the weak have gotten weaker. Just as I prefer to play strong charts with strong fundamentals, I'll short poor charts with poor fundamentals.
For a technician, I'll take the rogue view that I enjoy an efficient market. Weak-form efficient market theory says that that's an oxymoron, but I rely on the market's fundamental interpretation via the charts to help point me to the direction that the stock will likely go and continue to go. And if I'm wrong, I've learned the valuable lesson of cutting those losses quickly and to dodge and probe until I find a position that does win for me.
Rainier |
