Thanks, Sid.
I've been very long gold for a few years, and have enjoyed the ride up and have no plan to sell anytime soon, unless peace, real prosperity and fiscal responsibility break out (fat chance). Part of the reason I liked it was the fact that in real terms in needs to go to about $2000/oz to match its old high of 26 years ago. (What other asset can you name that is valued at less than 1/3 of what it was 26 years ago, right?) That fact has given me some confidence in the past years, and I am starting to see that mentioned in the mainstream press lately, which is interesting and I guess bullish.
Also interesting is Pierre Lassonde's recent comments on gold - he sees it hitting those old highs possibly in the next 12-18 months, and says that those levels will look like "change" in a few years. Here is that CC transcript, in case you missed it:
goldstockblog.com
I saw GFX at VIC and loved the idea, particularly as a recession play. Haven't bought since the price was up to $4 before I saw it. Waiting for a pullback. I went into an Office Depot recently and looked but didn't find anything of theirs. So, it's all in front of them, right? Very original, great idea -- as usual.
I was looking at some debt collection and pawn shop stocks, but the former, in particular, seems to actually have a tougher time in a recession, since the debts are harder to collect and new, eager-beaver competition shows up to overbid.
I'm in puts in some REITs right now, including my old favorite MAA and AVB. They are simply overloved and overdone. Cap rates are starting to rise and the intrinsic values are heading back down, not up, as some seem to want to believe. I think they correct 25% or more later this year.
Also have bought some of the new VIX call options, figuring sooner or later volatility will pick up when greed turns to fear.
More later. |
