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Strategies & Market Trends : Wanted: Long-Term "Strong Buy" Recommendations

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To: wang who wrote (8)10/27/1996 5:02:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski   of 54
 
Yes, I'm working on signing up as I speak. (A friend of mine is also)

Now, about your questions...

ASSOCIATE RECRUITING: (most info from the conference call)

PPD (since about July) has seen a major shift in it's buisness toward
group accounts vs. individual accounts. In 1995, groups accounted for
only 10-15% of memberships. In August and September of 1996, groups
accounted for 30-40% of new memberships. PPD has been concentrating
on getting this channel 'setup' since this is where the business is.
2 major changes occured in July and September to get this part of
the business moving. An associate who concentrates on individuals
signs up a couple people a year. A GROUP one signs up hundreds/year.
PLEASE READ MY CONFERENCE CALL SUMMARY IN THE PPD STRING.

There is a large misunderstanding in the associate recruiting number.
THESE ASSOCIATES CATER TO INDIVIDUALS, not groups. also, year over year numbers represent 'acceleration' not 'velocity' (to use physics
terms) a flat number year to year still represents a DOUBLING of associates (they didn't lose the previous year's ones!) It shouldn't
be interpreted the same as, lets say, a revenue number would be.
(revenue is in the PAST, total associates always grows!!)

PPD can't do it ALL! If they see a shift towards groups, something
must 'give' so that they can go after the opportunity.

MEMBERSHIPS:

Same points as above.. They retain 80% year over year. so, lets say
they had a quarter that the recruited 5000 new members vs. 5000 the
year before. You might say 'oh, they stopped growing'... WRONG!!!
what happened is that the year over year TOTAL grew to
(5000*80%) + (5000*100%) = 9000 = 80% growth!! (i.e. FLAT acceleration
= 80% growth year/year)

This is where people went wrong. This is why the opportunity is here... Those who sold will be sorry.

kp

P.S. Those numbers came from ZACKS, and a research report I received
from Ladenburg, Thalmann, & Co. Inc.

P.S.S retention rate has averaged 80%/year..
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