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Technology Stocks : LRCX this one looks good
LRCX 160.49+1.9%9:30 AM EST

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To: Jim Tao who wrote (89)2/22/1996 8:22:00 PM
From: Carl Smith   of 142
 
Jim, I'm not sure that your comment about the Dow is realistic. It is
estimated that the 30 Dow stocks will earn about $420 this year. If
you assume an average PE of 15 then the math would tell you that
another 1,000 points on the Dow is within reach.

With interest rates falling coupled with low inflation what motivation is
there but up. Most large companies like the one I work for have an
employee 401K plan with matching funds. My company employ's
180,000 and most have weekly payroll deductions into this plan. The
majority also have the stock fund selected. What I'm getting at is the
amount of money flowing into mutual funds on a weekly basis is
staggering. I believe its on the order of $10b. This money is fueling
the stock market. Once interest rates start to increase then these same
money managers will start migrating to bonds for the dividend yield.
When that happens the market will fall but until then lets enjoy the
ride.

When Gold when to $420 a couple of weeks ago I was starting to get
worried but its now back to $400. Watch the price of gold closely, it
will forecast inflation. Right now it is forecasting none in the foreseeable
future. However, not everything will continue to go up forever, the Dow
must fall sometime and that sometime will be signaled by something.
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