Watcher, thanks for your opinions. Please keep watching and posting, we love to hear those honest, not so humble opinions...
There will be a Quest 64 II in 99Q4. While Quest64 is not a huge success but it is still a very profitable title. You are right that THQ may or may not be the publisher of the next Rugrat, especially Devil Dice is not a hot-selling title as I wished. But Shao Lin maybe another hugh potential, too bad is won't be delivered until 99Q1.
You are not 100% correct that WWF Warzone is a technical superior product. It maybe when compare to the World Tour but WCW Revenge addresses almost all the issues raised by WT buyers. In fact, my study show that there are as many or slightly more supporters of Revenge as Warzone. Warzone suffers from the same old problem of Iguana Studio -> the poor gameplay. Recent Nielson cable TV statistic indicates that WWF is gaining momentum. (btw, I am also a AKLM shareholder at this moment, very happy today :o) It is also interesting to point out that if ERTS acquire THQI at high 40s, it will not only accretive to its earning, it will also monopoly the wrestling games! Of course, Brian Farrell will do whatever he can to prevent buyout.
We had discussed about why to avoid JAKKS, it basically won't have any big move until it polish up its balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet has been improved over last two quarters but investors may not interested until mid-1999. In additional, game manufacturers like JAKK have never enjoy the same multiple as software maker which THQI belongs to. My TMAX has a p/e of around 5 can what can you say about that?
--
Criag, THQI is undergoing some healthy consolidation (note it is healthy not heavy :o) and preparing for the next stock price appreciation. The stock had a nice run from 14.x to 31 in about two months. If there is no pull-back take place, I am sure there will be tons of January selling (a lot similar to the Nasdaq). It is currently trading slightly below the 13 days EMA but still above the 50DMA. It seems it had found it base around $27 to $28 but I expect the worst case is the $25 support established in late November, I don't see any reason why $25 support should be tested but you never know especially we have a such a energetic president.
--
Jeff: as some of you already known my year-end target is $33. So you can enter my guess as exactly $33/shr at Dec 31st.
Go AKLM, OOPS sorry, I mean go THQI :o)
aC |
