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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Sdgla who wrote (901731)11/18/2015 8:09:34 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (2) of 1575319
 
Sadly, If Sun Goes Into ‘Hibernation’ It Won’t Stop Catastrophic Global Warming, But It Might Put the Deniers in Hibernation
by Joe Romm Jun 15, 2011 6:25pm

In summary, global mean temperatures in the year 2100 would most likely be diminished by about 0.1°C

That means, on our current emissions path, we would be only about 9°F to 11°F warmer than preindustrial levels in 2100, rather than, say about 9°F – 11°F warmer. I would note that the 2010 analysis did not include major carbon cycle feedbacks like the tundra, whose impact will likely exceed that of any drop in solar irradiance this century (see NSIDC bombshell: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100).

Here are three key points:

  • The Sun is “the dominant source of energy for Earth’s climate system” as the GRL paper notes, but “changes associated with solar variability are small” and “their contribution to recent warming is negligible” (see links below).
  • 2010 was tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record in spite of coming at the end of “ the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.”
  • As NASA wrote during the deep 2009 minimum, “let’s assume that the solar irradiance does not recover. In that case, the negative forcing, relative to the mean solar irradiance is equivalent to seven years of CO2 increase at current growth rates. So do not look for a new ‘Little Ice Age’ in any case.”

thinkprogress.org
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