Guys, it is not so much what the reserves in place are. I doubt that figure will change much, from original USGS reports. Seemingly no reason to.
What is changing that is generating excitement is the amount of 'recoverable reserves'. This is a bit of a murky yet very important area. I have not read USGS reports, so I do not know how they handle this issue. Does not really matter that much in a way, as private industry will work it out. Recoverable reserves are dependent upon two main factors .. the price of oil plus available technology. There is much more to producing black oil than just punching a hole in the ground, in particular in trends like the Bakken.
I personally doubt The Bakken will get the US to oil independence. Probably not even close, even if the recoverable reserves would be upped to match Saudi's. The Bakken, even with new technology is hard to produce, and takes a lot of investment. But 'new technology' is always moving forward, so this is yet a bit of an unknown.
Texas had a lot of gushers and I think it peaked many years ago at something on the order of 3.4 MBPOD, with maybe 160,000 wells. I think Saudi may be able to produce 12 MBPOD with maybe a couple of thousdand wells. Put it in perspective, cost wise.
Although The Bakken could hold more recoverable oil than Texas ever did, it would seem to me to be near impossible for The Bakken to produce anymore on a daily basis than Texas ever did.
On the other hand what The Bakken does do, even if production can only be ramped up to say a couple of million BOD, is furnish a longterm supply of oil, with decent volumes at that. That is something this country has lacked for years now. It all helps and does change the world oil patch dynamic. More importantly as the article stated The Bakken could put significant dollars back into the US economy, rather than sending it all to someone else. This then is the major benefit, imo.
There is is lot of investment going into the oil patch these days, around the world. Huge. It always seems to go that way, investment booms followed by busts and big lulls. The current boom will be accompanied by a large increase in global hydrocarbon production (oil, gas, plus LNG). I personally suspect the next big LT top in oil may occur when Irag gets their shit together, whence major investment dollars should then flow into their oil industry. I think they may have the potential to produce on the order of Saudi, after that happens. It all takes time, but if/when that happens a lot of oil would be added to the global markets.
And we will get a gas pipeline to the L48, from my home state. That too will add a large amount of local and new hydrocarbon based BTU's to the US economy. Probably another 10 years out.
Eventually I have little doubt the current oil patch boom will be followed by another major bust. Supply and demand plus a declining dollar have worked together here. More than likely when the next bust comes along, the opposite will be the case. If so, look out below. Could be quite a ways out in time though.
By the time the next oil patch bust rolls around, I plan to be retired. Been through enough of them to wet my appetite.
JMO's.
TF |
