Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 178.29

-1.6%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: jmac who wrote (90246)	12/15/2000 6:08:19 AM
From: Mika Kukkanen	Read Replies (3) of 152472

Possibly the truth of future wireless deployment... Nobody should be shocked by the WCDMA being the dominant standard. Size of market dictates deployment. Anyway that is not the cloud that I see on Qcom horizon and that is the unlikelyhood of WCDMA/UMTS being rolled out nationwide in most developed countries. The debt incurred for licenses and equipment will impede nationwide roll-outs, again this is nothing new. It at most will be delay of a few years, such as GSM roll-out in the early nineties where it was confined to city centres and main roads (in particular to airports). For nationwide coverage of 3G, you will see EDGE being more and more talked about over the next year. It is part of AT&T's plan as EDGE is considerably less expensive to deploy...so expect WCMA/UMTS in metropolitan areas with EDGE covering the rest of the country. The value of UMTS/WCDMA infrastructure of which Qcom actually can claim royalties will be far lower than many here have touted. however, there is a silver lining to this cloud - no matter what happens, the most common handset will still incorporate a version of cdma. So chips and handset royalties will probably be Qcom's bag...and the only problem there is that over time, and I believe shorter than ever before, costs will drop dramatically. Why I say a shorter period of time than before? Well, the whole 3G gambit is relying on fast customer uptake and competition will be intense. The cost reductions associated with GSM has accelerated in the last 3 years (6-7 years after first networks), so in UMTS I expect to see that time reduced to something like 3 years. And for those in North America. Once new spectrum is allocated for 3G (2.1 gig down and 750 megs up for example), the winners will be the ones choosing WCDMA/UMTS. Consumers will be faced with the wider choice (and more advanced due to size of market) handsets from UMTS vendors compared to that of cdma2000 - this is one of the factors AT&T took into consideration for the move to GSM (just compare the choice of TDMA phones versus GSM).

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