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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 54.12

-4.4%

10:13 AM EST

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To: Robohogs who wrote (9031)	9/2/2003 9:36:27 AM
From: Biomaven	of 52153

How screwed are the big guys? Screwed. As a group they currently can't run fast enough to do much more than stay where they are in the face of patent expirations, generic challenges and managed care formularies. The generics have an impact over and above the particular drug that is challenged - they essentially kill any new "me-too" drugs in the class as well. That said, there are still some significant "pharma sized" unmet needs in chronic conditions - obesity, diabetes, AD, osteoarthritis, fibrosis, etc. But I don't see much in the next few years in these areas. So I suspect the next 3-5 years will be tough, with most of any EPS growth coming from further consolidations and rationalizations. Peter

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