The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company Message Board

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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 174.80

+0.3%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: marginmike who wrote (9043)	4/21/2000 9:16:00 PM
From: cfoe	of 13582

Some rambling Re: 1X, NOK and QCOM Following is a mix of fact, assumption and conclusion for a quiet holiday weekend. Comments, criticisms, etc. welcome. Fact: 1X will be going live in Korea and Japan this year, continuing into early net year. Assume: NOK sells very few to no CDMA phones in Korea and Japan Conclusion: As regards NOK market share in Korea and Japan, NOK has little at risk in delaying action on 1X ASICS Fact: 1X will begin to be deployed in US beginning calendar 2001. I base this on the CC this week where management stated that ASIC ASP looked higher because of greater number of 1X CSM chips in the mix. Assume: QCOM is pushing 1X sales everywhere CDMA is found Assume: U.S. service providers will begin requiring phones with 1X capability before the end of this year for next year Conclusion: NOK will foresee its share of CDMA phone sales falling to zero unless it begins making its own 1X chips or buys them from another source Fact: QCOM designed 1X so that they can fit into existing CDMA phones and phone production schemes (per Dr. J. it is simply a matter of taking out the old ASIC and plugging in the new one) Assume: NOK can be designing for 1X without ordering anything from QCOM (I realize this may be incorrect, but would appreciate knowing why if the ?fact? is correct) Conclusion: NOK is already preparing itself for 1X. Fact: QCOM is by far the leading provider of 1X ASICS (again per latest CC approx. 85% share) Assume: NOK cannot begin to produce 1X chipsets on its own, at least not in time for next year (in part based on what I have learned from engineer?s posts about lead time necessary to design working product) Conclusion: NOK will become a customer for QCOM ASICS within next six months Again, all comments welcome.

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