Thanks Tabler. I really don't monitor other's Elliott wave work except some of the sharpies on this thread, so I have no idea what everyone else is saying...except for the bits and pieces I heard from you and another poster or two about some looking for a C wave up to bookend what they THOUGHT was an "A" wave into the May high. I agree that EVERYBODY is looking up right now, and much of the bearish positions have been destroyed burned, razed, cremated, and buried in the rally from the April lows and the harsh spikes from the July lows. What's left probably isn't coming off unless companies start making money again. I've worked this count since February, and made a fortune going short into the March lows, and going long from the April lows. I've traded almost exclusively short from the May highs, and have monitored the progress of these wave 5 moves lower since. They certainly haven't been easy to trade, but a bearish bias has been fairly forgiving even if timing the highs and lows of these chops wasn't dead on.
The "C" up they're calling for has already happened. On the SPX, it occurred from the early April to May Rally, and on the Nasdaq, it was a quick spike rally from mid May to late May. Wave 4 was a Zig-zag... not a Flat, and that may be what has 'em all confused. Wave 2 (1017/00-12/11/00) WAS a Flat, and the theory of alternation says wave 4 is nearly always different from wave 2, so in this case, a zig-zag was called for, and a brief one at that. It was so brief that it has thrown them all for a loop.
Even if they were right and this was a Flat wave 4 with C to follow, wave B in that scenario would HAVE to retrace 70% of A, so the SPX would HAVE to visit 1151 from the May highs before a wave C could possibly begin. So why are they saying this is Wave C rally when the requirements for wave B haven't even been met? You're guess is as good as mine, and my guess is somebodies been smoking crack. -g-
For the coming week, rally Monday possibly into Tuesday, then we turn down. For the SPX, Thursday's high competed wave 3 from the 7/24 lows (I know this is different from what I thought earlier, but wave 3 extended in a very big way and took forever to complete, faking me out along the way). The sell-off into Friday's lows was wave 4, and the late rally looks to surely be wave 5, which has to retrace at least 70% of the selloff from Thursday's high, so a move back to 1220 is all that is required, but of course wave 5 COULD head higher, as this is wave 5 of C finishing the wave 2 correction of the 7/2-7/11 wave 1 move down... Thus a rally back to that July 2nd 1240 spx high is possible if a 100% retrace were in store. The bright side is they ONLY have 25 spx pts. to threaten us with. -g-
The German Crash caller will probably win the Elaine Garzarelli crash caller's award, as somebody out there always gets it right. A strong leg down looks to be in store, and just how rapidly it completes will dictate whether we view it as a crash or just a strong move... In either case, it's time to make some cash. -g-
For the QQQ's will be looking for a move from 44 area to no lower than 36.66, or roughly 16.1% drop. For the spx, will be looking for a move from 1225 area down to 1040, or 15%. So this may be rare case where the Naz doesn't outperform so badly to the downside, but keep in mind that it's corrective started in March of 2000 versus SPX's Sep 2000 start, so it shouldn't be that surprising that it will complete its "A" wave sooner than the SPX. |
