I'm still learning about all of this but I think that what you and Gottfried do is going to be right for me too. I've never used any tool to time the market, and never did any better than just OK at it. The NYSE and OTC bullish percent stuff looks pretty good to me. Looking back at those charts in Tom's book ... well, you have to be impressed. Certainly did better than my gut feel approach.
As far as sectors go, I did have a system. I didn't always stick with it, but I did most of the time. I would simply eliminate the top third to half of the Value Line Industries. It's actually not that different, although a bunch less refined, than what you guys do.
For stocks ... years ago I built a quantitative model of what a company should look like. It's evolved and grown over the years to the point where it is kind of a monster now. But it works great and has helped me pick some great stocks. What it doesn't do is help me with timing. I have bought and sold many a stock with a good profit that went down for a month after I bought it before turning up. And my timing with selling stocks, I can't even talk about it.
If P&F can improve my timing just a little bit, my return will increase dramatically. Here's how I figure it. If I buy a stock at $10 and sell it at $20, I've done well. But if I can buy that same stock at $9 and sell it at $21, I"ve done 33% better. Pretty cool stuff. Anyway, that's why I'm here.
Oh yea, I agree, the most volatile sectors work for me too, although I've pretty much avoided biotech. Just too crazy and irrational for my system.
Thanks for the interest,
bobster |
