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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (9072)	3/19/2003 4:57:07 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95546

Here's a bullish scenario which would suggest that now is a time to buy. Corporate spending is being held up by the clouds of war. However, the interest rate environment is very accommodative to investment at this time. A "relatively quick" resolution in Iraq would encourage many who have put projects on the back burner to move forward with their plans. Oil prices have started to drop and would also find their way down to the mid/low 20s using the "quick" assumption, freeing up more capital to be used for new projects. Travel worries could also be reduced substantially, adding some strength to a very weak segment of the world's economy. Refinancing hit another record high last week, adding more liquidity (or free cash flow) to the "average" consumer. Corporations have significantly cut costs and tighten their collective belts, which would suggest that any substantial improvement in the general economic trend would translate into higher profitability and improved earnings (and relative valuations). All of these trends might encourage those with 401Ks to increase their retirement savings plan deductions. Just a few possibilities IF things go "quickly" in Iraq...

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