From CS this morning:
Solar Snippet: Germany releases installation data
Quick take: Bundesnetzagentur, the German energy regulator, released data for solar installations for the months Jun- Aug today before markets opened. The country installed ~3.15GW solar PV systems in the three months (Jun-Aug 2010), up ~83% compared to ~1.7 GW installed by May 2010. YTD, the country has installed 4.88GW, and if you assume a similar rate for the remaining months, Germany should install ~7.3GW in 2010, about in line with our estimate at 7.0GW.
In 2009, Germany installed 3.8GW.
Seasonal trends. Installations spiked in the month of June to 2.13GW, as Germany had a FiT cut of 13% planned for July 1. However, in the months of July and August, installations declined to a total of 1.03GW. Year on year growth in installations had been running at 5-6x the levels in 1H10, but y/y growth rates decelerated to 118% in July and to 24% in August. Typically, Germany installs more systems in 2H than in 1H - and this year, 1H10 installations were 3.8GW - which would suggest installations could even reach 8GW. However, note that there are FiT subsidy (feed in tariff) declines happening in the Czech Republic and Italy as well, which suggests there were likely other markets that were competing for panel supply as well in 2H10.
Installations by segment. In 1H10, sub 30kW systems accounted for 39% of installations in Germany, 30-100kW were 25% of installations, and >100kW systems were 35% of installations. However, in the months of June-August, >100kW installations increased to 42% of installations. Note that Germany cut its ground mounted installation FiT rates by 18-22% already on July 1, 2010. We expect ground mounted installations will moderate into 2011 due to declines in FiT rates.
Implications for 2011. Note that Germany will annualize the cumulative installations between June and Sep to determine the rate of FiT declines - if the annualized installations were above 6.5GW, there will be a 13% FiT decline on Jan 1, 2011, but the rate of FiT decline is capped at this level. Since even without September we are at 11.5GW, we are presently guaranteed the 13% FiT cut in Jan 2011. However, unless there is a policy change to cap the level of demand or further accelerate the FiT cuts in 2011, at a panel price of ~Eu1.25/watt, the German market should remain functional and potentially absorb panels at similar rates as in 2010. Our current demand estimates are at 5GW for 2011 - versus the 7GW) |
