RE: Merck - It is obvious that MRK from a financial point of view would prefer that Viracept have no sales. I have not seen the MRK ads in the magazine "Men's Health", so cannot comment on them, but if they were misleading, I would be upset at Merck. If you believe that the Merck ads are misleading, please say so, scan them & post them or provide a link to somewhere where I can find them. If they are misleading, then I will complain to Merck. That is a promise.
2. PI's & viral replication - Nomenclature in the discussion of HIV is critical. Example - in a previous post, I said that Viracept does not halt viral replication. I was flogged by the AGPH supporters. Of course, I am correct in my assertion. If you believe that it does halt replication, combine that with a viral half-life of roughly 6hrs. for the virus in serum, and I make the following offer - I'll assume you're HIVnegative. Here's how to make a ton of $. All the AGPH bulls get injections of HIV+ blood (pure wild type), matched for blood type, and clean of all other nasties. Sell all your other stocks and buy AGPH. After about 4 months, start taking Viracept. Since no "life-form" lives forever, when you and your fellow investors are cleared of virus roughly 3 years down the road, have a press conference, announce your discovery and watch AGPH rise to $72,167 per share. Knowing in advance that this prescription will do the trick, start buying call options and selling AGPH puts before your press conference. - Of course, this scenario is silly, and the reason you won't do as suggested is that even though I may disagree with most of the posters on this thread, I actually believe that the majority of you are quite intelligent, and you don't want to kill yourselves. 2 - Viracept does not halt viral replication. The key is "halt". In my mind, halt means cease, stop, end of story - forever and ever. PI's are designed to prevent replication, but they are imperfect - that's the point.
3. Sell-Side analysts - No, they are not all deal-sluts. Most are quite bright, and to cover biotech, most have PHD's, MD's, or high school GED's (joke). However, there is intense pressure not to say negative things about current or potential corporate finance clients.
Because I understand their predicament, I am reluctant to personally attack some of their outlandish statements, but on occasion I will do so if they are so absurd as to almost make Letterman's top 10 list reasons to buy XYZ, Inc. For example,PARAPHRASING Morgan Stanley - "Viracept is equivalent to Crixavan" - (I can't find the research piece where this was stated, or else I would use an exact quote.)This assertion just ain't true. Look at the patient populations in the Crix vs. the Viracept phase 3 trials. AGPH used a population that responds better to therapy. Merck used a tougher group. Stating that a 2log reduction in viral load appeared in both phase 3 trials does not mean that both drugs, WHEN USED IN COMBINATION THERAPY, are equally effective. About 5 weeks ago, somebody posted here that all doctors cared about was a 2log reduction, therefore Viracept is the "obvious" choice for triple-comb. therapy. Well, yes, BUT - and the but relates to the trials I'm pointing out to you. I would hope that the sell-side analysts realize this. If they don't understand this, then they should go to the original data. People saying that if you become resistant to triple combination therapy that includes Viracept as the PI can switch to triple combination with Crix are fooling themselves. The conference in Florida about drug resistance DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT CLAIM, AND IT'S AMAZING THAT SELL SIDE ANALYSTS TWISTED THE DATA TO SAY THAT IT DOES. I have spoken to people who attended the Florida meeting and I personally will have friends at the NY meeting on July 11 which is a summary of the Florida meeting. If you doubt me, go to the NY meeting. I am not making this up! OK, I'll calm down.
THE AD in Individual Investor - Since all of you think I am an uneducated liar who would sell his soul and yours for a ticket for the premier of the remake of "Godzilla", due out April, '98 - don't take my word for it on the ad. Speak to Agouron directly. Ask if they've been contacted by the FDA regarding the ad. Ask why they changed their corporate profile which could be accessed via a link from Individual Investor web site, which is iionline.com
It's in the sponsored profiles section. Call up the magazine and ask them if the first profile had to be pulled. You don't have to believe me - all I am doing is opening your eyes. I tried to do so on the LIPO thread before it collapsed, since I posted on the Sonus thread, Sonus bulls are sitting on their couch, saying, "huh? - could this be true?" I am not suggesting that everyone at AGPH are workers for the Antichrist. I hope all their drugs in the pipeline work, because we are all consumers of healthcare. Regarding Viracept, I believe that there are some positive aspects to the drug, which I can intelligently discuss with the best of you. I would like to post more, but I have other things to do. Best wishes. |
