Energy and The Commodities Bull. How many times have we heard about all that? Everyday for a long time. We have the Chan man and all kinds of anals pumping energy as well as commodities. Day in day out. Not only are they all going to the frigging moon they are going out of the Solar system.
nspolar does not need a Chan man, thank-you very much.
It was nigh a few years back that we had anal after anal telling us the market had entered a secular bull. No moon this time, but to the bottom of the oceans. Well what happened? 90 % believed and turned bear. And in the interim indice after indice as well as global indice have seeked out new highs. Not only new highs but new all time highs.
And now just when the biggies (The DOW, SPX and NAS) are in a major move we are hearing from the Chan man and others that energy is going to eat our lunch, and put a halt to all this nonsense.
Are you suspicious? You should be, and especially if you are in energy. That is my opinion. Like the Slide man saith, don't over stay yer welcome. Come to the party early, but consider leaving early as well.
Here is my present XOI EW. It does not have to be correct ... but likewise it may not be wrong.
ttrader.com
ttrader.com
The XOI is as good a tracker of energy as the XNG as is OSX as is the OIH as is the DXE or whatever. They have the same patterns, within a wavelet or so. My EW says the XOI has completed a major 5 wave up pattern, or complete sequence.
It also says that off the top the XOI has made a 5 wave down move, and is now within a few days of finishing up a small 'b' move. I have included a ST term chart showing this, and once again showing how it should be gauged and played. If certain lines break it is going down, that is just the way it is. If not the opposite must happen. All within a few days here, impo. Ya gots to have a plan.
There are other implications to all this. The bulls might for example think that this move in energy is just the first wave up, of a larger 5 wave move, with 2 more large up waves yet to come. Well that may be ... but there is also the possibility that this move up that has occurred will mark a high that will last for a long long time. If so the energy indices will turn into an EW mess, and resolve into their more normal complex but cyclical patterns. And ... this is just not what all the anals are predicting, is it? So what is it going to be? Chances are the anals and all the masses who follow them will get it wrong, and about the time they turn the other direction energy will put in another barn burner of a move.
And the final implication is w/r to the HUI.
The equivalent spot w/r to EW patterns for the HUI is adequately marked. Trade the pops if you can ... but note that almost all of the corrections until the end was neared (in the XOI and XNG) were 'running' or rising corrections. They were difficult to trade dudes, ya had to be near perfect. And we might also note the big extended vth wave in the XOI. It is my present guess that the same thing will happen in the HUI, that is we will get a burner of vth of 3 up, that will split into 5 subwaves. But unlike the XOI the equivalent move in the HUI will last fewer days, and literally go parabolic (straight up). |
