RPT: Brazil's State Polls Sunday Seen As
Crucial For Cardoso
By WILLIAM VANVOLSEM
Dow Jones Newswires
BRASILIA -- As the world awaits news on measures to bring Brazil back
from the brink of financial collapse, attention now turns to next Sunday's
run-off elections for 13 state governors.
The outcome of the polls will determine how tough negotiations will be and
how much political bargaining will be necessary to push through
long-delayed reforms and an eagerly-awaited fiscal plan, analysts say.
And the ultimate success of many of the changes that President Fernando
Henrique Cardoso seeks to push through depends on the performance of
the powerful state governors.
The latest opinion polls indicate that gubernatorial candidates endorsed by
Cardoso stand a slim chance of clinching victory in the country's leading
states and the federal capital district.
"These elections are very important for Cardoso as he desperately needs
the full support of state governments to implement fiscal measures and
savings and guarantee the votes that local governors command in
Congress," said Carlos Lopes, a political consultant with Santa Fe Ideias in
Brasilia.
Apart from that, Lopes points out, it's the state governments with their
reckless overspending and chronic deficits that make Brazil's public
accounts so ugly. Brazil is running a budget deficit of 7% of gross domestic
product.
David Fleischer, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia,
agrees that Cardoso might have to skipper a turbulent course if antagonistic
governors win in states such as Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande
do Sul.
"Governors have far more power and a direct hold on their states than the
president has over the whole country. Their influence and political weight
should not be underestimated," Fleischer said.
Fleischer says it's clear that Cardoso postponed announcement of the
multi-year fiscal emergency measures until next week because of the
gubernatorial elections.
"It just shows how much importance he attaches to these elections and the
role of the future governors. I'm sure he will inform the elected governors of
the measures first before it's made public or submitted to Congress," he
said.
The proposals were handed to Cardoso by Finance Minister Pedro Malan
on Tuesday, but will be divulged only mid-next week.
"The elected governors' role in the success of the plan is crucial as they will
have to close the tap and make the cuts," said Lopes.
"It is therefore extremely important with whom Cardoso will have to sit at
the negotiating table on a state level to implement the measures," he added.
Fourteen governors were elected in a first-round poll held Oct. 4, the same
day Cardoso was re-elected. But a second round run-off vote is needed in
12 other states and the federal district of Brasilia.
Most attention will go to the four most developed states that have the largest
GDP contribution in the country. And it's exactly there where things don't
look particularly bright for Cardoso.
A poll published Wednesday by Datafolha shows that the fight for Brazil's
prime governorship, that of mighty Sao Paulo state, will be a cliff-hanger:
Cardoso's candidate Mario Covas, the outgoing governor, is leading the
race with only 45% against 41% for populist Paulo Salim Maluf, a former
mayor of Sao Paulo city.
Despite Covas having overtaken Maluf since the previous poll, the
Datafolha poll has a margin of error of between 2% and 3%, which puts the
two neck-and-neck.
Fleischer reckons Maluf still stands a chance, but also thinks that if he wins
he will not wage a frontal opposition to Cardoso.
"He is a smart plotter and more than likely he will sit down at the negotiating
table and bargain for special favors for his state, where unemployment is
running record levels," Fleischer said. Research group Dieese puts
unemployment in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, the only region in the
state with official data available, at 18%.
According to Fleischer, Maluf could pick up a Sao Paulo state in good
fiscal shape - "ironically thanks to a good administration by Covas".
Covas is a darling of the economic team and one of Cardoso's favorites for
having cleaned up state accounts and privatizing state energy sector assets.
"But there was not much else he could do during his term - nor was there
any money to do it if he wanted to," Fleischer said.
Lopes adds that this is exactly where Maluf might score with the general
voting public. "He's known as a doer with a penchant for spectacular and
visible public works such as super-highways and housing projects - never
mind the books," the analyst said.
The peculiarities of regional Brazilian politics also come to the fore in Sao
Paulo, where defeated leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate Marta Suplicy
publicly expressed her support for Covas in the run-off vote, saying she
would place her mark for the Cardoso-endorsed candidate.
Things look a bit more grim for Cardoso in Minas Gerais, Brazil's second
most populous and industrialized state. There the Datafolha poll gives
former President Itamar Franco a solid 52% to 36% lead over
Cardoso-sponsored incumbent governor Eduardo Azeredo.
Both analysts say that the former president will be "a thorn in the side of
Cardoso", as Fleischer puts it, or "a nuisance" in the words of Lopes.
Also in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, Cardoso's man is
lagging in the polls: leftist PT candidate Olivio Dutra leads with 50% against
43% for incumbent Antonio Britto.
But, Dutra isn't regarded as a strong force in national politics, although he's
expected to put up uncompromising opposition to Cardoso.
In Rio de Janeiro, the traditionally "anti-anybody-who's-in-power" state,
leftist Anthony Garotinho also looks like he will pick the honors with 56%
against 36% for former Rio city mayor Cesar Maia of the Cardoso camp.
But Garotinho isn't a militant oppositionist and he will probably strike a
working compromise with the central government.
In Brasilia, Cardoso-endorsed Joaquim Roriz is struggling with incumbent
PT governor Cristovam Buarque (48% vs 46%), openly supported by
Cardoso allies, in the race for this prestigious federal district top post.
-By William Vanvolsem; (5561) 244 3095; wvanvolsem@ap.org |
