If current unprofit rates by techs flatline through end-2002, then, you're right, "these shares have lots of room to fall". If the Fed keeps cutting rates, to 1% or so, and business/consumer spending doesn't respond, and it's December 2002, then the Nas could be below 1000. I'm making the bet that is too pessimistic a forecast.
The last couple of months, I've been hearing, from various tech companies, slightly positive noises, that inventories and bookings have stabilized. Yes, that's at levels where nobody makes much profits.
And, if I decide I'm wrong, I can do what I did in January and April 2001: sell the rally (there will be rallies, even if they are only Bear Rallies) and return to the sidelines. |
