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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 56.68-2.4%Dec 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Icebrg who wrote (9116)9/11/2003 11:22:52 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
>>Very, very rarely does the FDA approve drugs when primary end points are not met.>>

In GNTA's case they claimed the FDA has seen the data and had encouraged them to proceed with the application. Given Aventis's participation in the application I doubt that this is just a small biotech indulging in either wishful thinking or deliberate distortion of the facts. I think IMCL is sufficiently recent in executives' mind to make them behave for at least the rest of the year. <g>

After listening (albeit with half an ear) to the call, I guess I come down in the camp that believes that their result will likely be confirmed once all the events (deaths) are in. I basically thus agree with Erik's excellent analysis.

I have no current position, but if the shorts hammer them further they may well be a good buy. (Interestingly when the results first came out and the stock was up sharply I looked to short the stock, but there were no shares to be borrowed.)

Peter
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