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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.30

-0.1%

2:44 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (9136)	9/16/2003 3:01:26 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

So looks like the Trimeris Fuzeon issue is one of weak demand. One report I saw that interviews doctors had many saying that compliance was a big issue for their particular patient population and so they are not eager to use it widely. I guess it is likely the previously non-compliant patients that are most likely to be presently resistant to everything else. (But I'm not sure about this link between resistance and previous non-compliance). Interestingly it looks like TSC might have been early with this weak demand angle: AIDS Drug Still Facing Obstacles on Suitability 07/23/03 09:03 AM ET By Adam Feuerstein Sell-siders are counting on a huge rollout of Fuzeon, but doctors aren't confirming it. (Premium content so all I have is the teaser). Anyone seen any explanation for the market's very lukewarm response to the Cubicin approval? We may be getting back to the days when the shorts climb on newly approved niche drugs in the first few quarters after approval. Another interesting note today - GILD down today on a "fully valued" downgrade from JPM. I can't say I really disagree with them, at least in the short run. I took some profits in GILD, but still have a fair position. The compelling values in the top tier aren't really there any more. Unclear whether the mid/bottom tiers will play catch-up, although many of these have had quite a run as well. SEPR continues to be a tower of strength. A note I saw today indicates that Indiplon is now likely a full 18 months behind Estorra, which may be enough for SEPR to get decent traction before the PFE marketing juggernaut steps in. Peter

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