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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: techanalyst1 who wrote (9157)10/12/2001 2:31:52 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
I don't expect a big selloff but I don't pretend to know which way the market is going in the next week or two.... we could selloff as short-covering might be exhausted right now.

From an expectations perspective, the worst is over for the market. And that is (at least) half the battle. I can't see psychology getting that bad again until another full economic cycle has run its course... Unless the business cycle is dead, the bottom for stocks is certainly in as all we need to do now is beat dramatically lowered expectations and then the biz cycle should help to show real growth... From a cyclical perspective, things look a lot better now than things did last March. Comparisons are getting easy as numbers are small so that many groups can grow with no help from the macroeconomy. Given how negative everybody was about Q3's results, the bark will prove much worse than the bite.

Leadership companies like JNPR and BRCD took their hits and are now poised to grow off the new (smaller) revenue base. Fundamentally, you need stability before you can grow. At this point in the cycle, it is as good as an upside suprise (in a stronger economy) if you simply don't lower your forward guidance. Q4 will be better than Q3 as everything that could go wrong last quarter did... Europe fell apart compounding a bad US economy and creating a back-end loaded quarter for companies to make their numbers by counting on good sales execution in the month of September. That was impossible....
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