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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Goutam who wrote (91786)2/6/2000 2:20:00 PM
From: Charles R   of 1576834
 
Goutama,

<Look at Pat Gelsinger's statement - it was worded very carefully. From this there is no clear indication that Intel planned it's output to meet the forecasted 15 percent growth in the CPU market. >

You noticed that too! It is fudge city.

<Based on this statement, one can assume that AMD will capture about 8 to 10 percent from the >20 percent growth of the market.>

As much as I like this to happen, I am afraid it will not. The business SKUs have simply not come AMDs way yet. Any volume picked up on the business side will be small this Q.

< This would translate into an additional 2.5M to 3M AMD CPU's from Q4'99. At $90 ASP(assuming higher ASP from Q4'99), this would give about $225M revenues from the additional CPU sales! Add another $75 additional revenues from other business segments and you are looking at close to $300M more from the previous quarter or about $1 EPS from the increased sales alone!>

I don't quite agree with your numbers but for a long time I have been saying AMD will have a $1 in earnings this Q and the current situation just cements that perspective.

I expect see upgrades start rolling in in the coming weeks probably starting with the launch of the 850.

Chuck
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