Before the hoopla, seek on its own initiative hit a high of 100 and was (for a while) relatively stable in the 80's. With the recent downturn, it took a substantial hit, falling far lower than its brethren in the portal biz to the low 30's. There has been a wealth of discussion on the go.com seek thread, notable for its conjecture that the buyout value of seek should be between 110 and 125, based largely on the Alta Vista purchase by cmgi.
While analysts have discussed the dis buyout price of 70-75, it will be perceived as disappointing and undervalued by shareholders. Remember the lcos buyout by usat, which was opposed by cmgi's ceo David Weatherall?
At present, we are well below any perceived fair market value for the buyout. In the current market climate, the stock should make some big moves upward to compensate for the drop, perhaps moving back into the upper 60's pending news. But once news comes (if news comes), the volitility could be increased based upon the actual offer number. If the offer comes in above the 75 number, perhaps closer to 90, there will be jubilation. At 75 or below, however, there will be much unhappiness amongst shareholders. Either way, it is a gift horse staring at us right now (as it has been for the past month).
SHG |
