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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis
AQN 6.6250.0%1:54 PM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (91)4/12/2017 1:04:07 AM
From: Underexposed  Read Replies (1) of 914
 
Hi Robert

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but SHM is not looking too good right now... I'll explain as follows

You should be using this chart (less quotes), copy it then paste it into your Browser address and then make a favourite or bookmark... depending on your browser.

Here is the address: "http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42194847384"

here is the chart... actually I will upload 2 charts... My Trigger chart which I have been developing the components here and soon will assemble the complete Trigger chart for discussion.... and the other is what I call my sentiment chart... it is one that I use to help determine the bull/bear nature of a stock... I have a third chart that I could use but I don't think it is necessary here.

here is the trigger chart



let us start at the top and work our way down....

Yes the ETF briefly broke the 50 day SMA... that is the bad news... the semi good news is that it retreated back to the Lower Bollie by the end of the day.... You sort of have to treat such a thing is a battle between bears and bulls for the day... the bears dragged the ETF below the 50 day SMA but the bulls dragged it back above that SMA... it is ONLY semi good though because overall there still was a significant loss for the day (0.79%)
Every time the BB has been penetrated it has reversed immediately.
well it did so this time but not always...if it closed the lower bollie it could stay there up to 5 days.

Now also the Bollies are fairly tight...a big movement in price is soon (maybe tomorrow even)... this was a bad drop today but I fear a lot mor fall to come. The ETF price is in a very bad place for the movement... falling through the 20 daySMA and resting on the Lower Bollie.... Bearish

Now lets look at the Slow Sto

this indicator has been falling since the beginning of April... in a bear run, it usual in this chart to see the Slow Sto lead the way by having a steep fall through the 80 level..very Bearish

Next the MACD
I've been thinking the Macd staying above zero has showed strength.
I pay little attention as to WHERE the MACD is at any particular time... more important is the slope of the line and whether the highs are higher or lower that the previous ones... also whether the lows are higher or lower than previous. You can sort of draw resistance/support lines as I have shown.

You can see there is a negative slope to the MACD... the more dramatic change in slope took place at the same time as the Slow Sto... this is also normal in a the start of a bear run...first the Slow Sto then the MACD.

Note the MACD is touching the support line but did not break it...yet so it is not yet full on bear but certainly Bearish

The BBwidth is next
BB % width in good position.
Actually it is BBwidth not BB% width... BB% is another indicator that I did not find very useful.

The BBwidth is not particularly in a good position.... The BBWidth is the TRIGGER to a movement. It is like the trigger on a gun....and I am getting a bit ahead of myself here but I will give you my rules for this kind of chart.

1. If the Slow Sto and MACD both have a strong negative slope and the BBWidth suddenly as a very positive slope... it will be a bear movement of price

2. If the Slow Sto and MACD both have a strong positive slope and the BBWidth suddenly as a very positive slope... it will be a bull movement of price.

Right now the BBwidth is like looking down the barrel of a gun that could go off any day now.

It looks quite bad but you asked me about it perhaps to take some action to lessen the blow.

Here is another chart that I won't describe in detail but I will say what each component tells me.



from the top

1. Parabolic Sar... bearish
2. Force 100... turning bearish
3. RSI(30)...still neutrally bullish but fading fast as it is headed below 50
4. ADX DI +/- (red green lines) Just in the process of forming a bear cross

Conclusion

There is nothing in this analysis that points to anything but a bear fall.

If I owned this ETF, I would seriously consider collecting my profits and get out. If I were using this EFT as a guide line since I owned one or more stocks that make up the ETF... (I don't like ETF's in general but I do like to cherry pick the good ones in their stable of stocks)... then I would seriously take a hard look at those stocks and take appropriate action.

The good news is you asked for the analysis... so you have time hopefully to do something.... however... read my disclaimer... the decision on what to do is yours

Good Luck
UE
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer:

I am not a registered broker. I am retired and use Technical Analysis as the main tool in my investment decisions. Accept or reject my comments as you will, but do your own Due Diligence (DD) before making any decisions based on the information I provide.

Underexposed
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