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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)

ADPT 14.73

-15.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Charlie Smith who wrote (919)	1/21/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Jim Switz	of 5944

Well, if he's expecting $0.40 for the current quarter, then $1.80 says he's expecting an average of $0.45/quarter for the following 4 quarters, or FY99. That seems pretty conservative to me, but I don't think it's a misprint, as $2.80 (if it was a misprint) seems too high to me. My current thinking (subject to change moment to moment, given all the uncertainties right now) is that we've essentially lost a year's worth of growth, and that the previous FY98 estimate of $2.20 should be assigned to FY99, ending Mar. 31 '99. That doesn't mean I like it, but that's what I'm thinking just now. What sort of multiple do you think the market will support for ADPT once all this shakes out in a couple/few months? If they come in at FY98 of $1.84 (seems likely to me), they're sitting at a P/E of 13 on today's price of about $24. Jim

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