Can someone please tell me why Apple might not give out an earnings warning just like CPQ.
Some reasons:
1. The PowerPC is on a different growth curve than the Pentium. People don't see much difference between Pentium/MMX, Pentium Pro and Pentium II. But they see a big difference between the 604e and the G3.
2. Apple has yet to go into the low margin market. CPQ got hit not because of market share, which is growing, but because of low margins. Apple's margins are higher than they have been in a long time.
3. Apple is in different markets than the PC box makers. Apple is in publishing, education, etc. PC makers are in home and business. Different markets have different logics.
4. The Q1 profit is restoring people's confidence in Apple, and that seems to be producing a buying surge, as people now feel confident that they can buy a Mac and not worry that the company they bought it from will go out of business.
5. The clone market is virtually non-existent now.
6. Macs (as opposed to CPUs in point 1) are in a different upgrade cycle. People who bought Quadras or whatever three years ago are now in the market for new Macs.
7. Fundamentals: AAPL is relatively undervalued right now, while CPQ is relatively overvalued.
That's all I can think of right now.
I still think AAPL will go down on Monday because of the logic "CPQ is a box maker, CPQ is going down, AAPL is a box maker, so AAPL will go down too." But I think the dip will be shallower and the rebound quicker than PC companies because of 1-7 above.
rhet0ric |
