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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!!
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To: epicure who wrote (92211)1/1/2005 1:51:03 AM
From: Grainne  Read Replies (1) of 108807
 
I am not sure what will happen in Iraq. I think that most of the Bush administration should be tried for war crimes, really, but that is an opinion on another part of the issue, not a prediction. I guess I would have to lean towards civil war. Since the terrorists are promising to shoot anyone who tries to vote, and I read the other day that less than 1% of the population is registered to vote anyway, it doesn't seem like a democratic election is going to work very well.

Could Allawy and his governing board (the ones who haven't been assassinated yet) just divide the country up after the election fails, into its natural tribal areas? Since Iraq was an artificial construct to begin with, that might make sense. I suspect the U.S. is waiting for the situation to fall apart so badly that we will have some cover for leaving. That is why I hold my nose and watch Sean Hannity sometimes--I think he gets his talking points directly from the White House on a daily basis. If Hannity's position on the war starts to sound different, we are on our way out of there for sure.

Who knows what the surrounding nations will do to cause mischief? I think that is very unpredictable. I would like to imagine a scenario in which the U.S. successfully quells the terrorism and leaves a democratic Iraq in place, but there are no links at all from this pie-in-the-sky ideal to what is happening on the ground there.
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