Excerpt from the Jubak's Journal article.
<<In fact, I'd say that while companies such as Ascend may still rule a profitable niche, the game is over. Cisco has won. (Please keep your hate mail to 25 words or less.)>>
What a ridiculous thing for Jubak to say. Technology doesn't stay static, requiring those on top to keep striving to stay there. CSCO has merely won yesterday's game. Can they win tomorrow's?
A few years back, you could have said that WordPerfect had the maket "won". Same with Netscape's browser, which at one point had 90% of the market. 7 years ago, experts were predicting IBM's mainframes were dead, but they still have plenty of life - as does COBOL, which was supposed to by 6 feet under by now.
The facts are that there are macro trends taking place affecting the Networker's (and others of course). From routing to switching, from slow LANs pumping data to very high speed converged networks running a broad spectrum of bandwidth absorbing applications, from a TV watching society to one that surfs online, from Mega Malls to selling on the Internet, from flying to meetings in person to attending via a window on a screen, from 14.4 modems being acceptable to xDSL and Cable Modems being eagerly awaited, etc.
CSCO has been slow to respond to the emergence of switching and technologies like GE, VoIP, VPNs, Optical Inter-networks, etc.
WILL they "win" the new game? They have an excellent chance, but this new game has new rules (and opportunities), many of which haven't shown themselves yet.
Can MRVC continue to emerge as a player through their innovation - small, but fast growing and successful for a number of years to come?
Absolutely. |
