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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: thames_sider who wrote (92270)	10/29/2008 4:58:59 AM
From: Cogito	of 541658

>>Taleb believes that our brains evolved to suit a world much simpler than the one we now face. His writing is idiosyncratic, but he does touch on many of the perceptual biases that distort our thinking: our tendency to see data that confirm our prejudices more vividly than data that contradict them; our tendency to overvalue recent events when anticipating future possibilities; our tendency to spin concurring facts into a single causal narrative; our tendency to applaud our own supposed skill in circumstances when we’ve actually benefited from dumb luck.<< TS - Thanks for posting that article. It's one of the most perceptive and important things I've read from Brooks. The one paragraph above speaks volumes. Of course, it's Brooks presenting Nassim Taleb's ideas, which probably explains why it's so much better than much of what Brooks does on his own. I'm struck also by the idea that instead of dealing with crises by concentrating on which action might be in our best interest, we should work more on making sure we are perceiving the situation correctly. I plan to take that to heart. It could apply in any situation. - Allen

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