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Non-Tech : Sunglass Hut RAYS- Will it ever breakout?
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To: Gary105 who wrote (920)1/4/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: Brian R.  Read Replies (1) of 971
 
Gary,

Okay, the e-commerce discussion was interesting. Want to try out another RAYS theory?

Here's the hypothesis:
The success of a Sunglass Hut store in a particular mall is highly correlated with the presence of a single high-traffic anchor tenant.

I'm thinking particularly about Wal-Mart and the practice that Wal-Mart seems to have of moving a successful store out of the mall into a stand-alone Super-Wal-Mart location. So, here's the question: how many RAYS outlets are in Wal-Mart (K-Mart, whatever) malls? How many are not in single high-traffic anchor tenant malls?

I bring this up because a friend of mine told me about the move-out of a Wal-Mart and the subsequent death-knell for small retailers (rumor included a Sunglass Hut store) in a particular mall.

So, the new risk-factor could be called the "X-Mart Bailing Risk Factor" and could be some function of the number of Sunglass Hut stores in "X"-Mart-enabled malls divided by the total number of Sunglass Hut stores.

It would be interesting to go back and look at the stores they closed to see if this effect was present. Unfortunately, I don't have a location list from late-1996/early-1997.

I'm still trying to get a handle on the fundamentals of this stock. I know, I know -- play it as a pure seasonal trade. Still, I would like to have a thorough understanding of the business.

Happy 1999 -- We'll know more on the 7th.

Brian
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