Perhaps, perhaps not.
I imagine World Markets will chill tonight....but for traders to ignore likely problems is dangerous.
Economics in other countries affect our multinationals...
Derivatives, now that you bring it up, are intertwined globally. A crisis in derivatives really will whack markets.
DJIA 7600 should be resistance.
Under pressure from other countries looking for stability, the government likely pushed for stock buybacks from corporations....just as they did in every other crash during this century....(Of course, I don't know if they really did, but it seems likely---what other government in the world can affect a market like the US government can?)
We should expect wider swings....these 350, 550 point collars will become much too tight
If this rally fails there has been too much technical damage to believe in the buy the dip philosophy
The bright spot, INTC, I missed---dammit---by the time I realised it got to my buy point it was back up.
Greenspan will be cautious in his comments now that the market rallied.
As far as options derivatives players are concerned, the edge was equity call buyers over the past few weeks. Yesterday and today had Index and equity put buyers out in force....generally, traders look for large blocks to guess direction...failing that, small lots are looked at from a contrarian point of view.
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All of the above is meaningless. It is meaningless because it does not suggest a specific direction...up, or down.
I do not presume to forecast, at this point, which way the break will go....the above might provide clues.
Insofar as I have moved mostly to cash, it will make little difference to me. On the other hand...it will make a difference to people holding stock if the market breaks.
It's unfortunate, but as usual I am not as bullish as you, however. |
