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Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links

SPXL 222.46

-0.9%

Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: Les H who wrote (925)	11/5/2001 6:07:14 PM
From: Les H	of 29602

What to expect now. November 5, 2001 Ord Oracle The indicator that has been bullish for the last couple of days is about to turn bearish. The closing on the "5 day ARMS" on Friday was 7.72. Readings over 6.00 are bullish. However, a reading of 1.84 closing ARMS index drops off today and a 2.58 reading drops tomorrow and 1.48 drops off on Wednesday. If the ARMS index closes tomorrow near .75 or lower tomorrow than the "5 day ARMS" will be in the 4.60 range and near bearish territory. Our "Percent volume indicator just turned bearish today with a reading of .53. Readings of .53 appear near short term tops. Tomorrow appears to be and important date for a turning point in the market. The tick index readings have already reached extreme readings last Friday, giving a bearish sign. Bearish signal from the tick index readings can lead market tops by two or three days, before it turns down. It is worth noting that the S&P is testing the previous high the third time. The third high is when either the market breaks through and goes on to big gains or fails and goes on to big declines. A "Selling Climax" occurred on September 21. According the "Wyckoff", a "Secondary Test" is needed to complete the bottoming process. The "Secondary Test" or pull back should begin about now. This pull back should go back and fill the gap near the 970 level on the S&P. We may get the signal to short the SPY tomorrow. GE went back up and test the 39 resistance and drew a bearish "Upthrust" and a Bearish "Doji". Downside target remains near the 31.50 area. We are holding the GE December 35 puts. We are staying short the SPX. The NDX did produce a bearish "Upthrust" on October 25 and 26. A "Specialist Trap" was triggered on October 29, confirming the sell signal. After an "Upthrust" is triggered, a re-test is probable. A re-test can rally back anywhere from a 50% retracement to as much to test the previous high (though not as common). Today the NDX tested the October 26 high and the volume dropped off near 25% and closed below the October 26 high, completing another bearish "Upthrust". We were stopped out today on our QQQ short position for a 8.30% loss. We plan to re-short on the next sell signal. Point and Figure charting suggest the QQQ could test the previous low near 27. Tomorrow or Wednesday will be an important time to complete and important sell signal on the QQQ. The XAU may consolidate to the first part of November before the strongest part of the up-move begins and that up-move may last into next year. The cycles point to November 3 to 7 for the end of the consolidation. Still, most gold stocks are making higher highs on increased volume and remains in a bullish up-trend since the November 2000 low. Our upside target on the XAU is still 95 minimum. marketweb.com

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