"Real Clear Politics" Commentary
A TWO-HEADED MONSTER TAKES SHAPE:
Michael Crichton said in a speech recently that "speculation is a complete waste of time." He's right, of course, but that's not going to stop me from speculating on the circus that is the current Dem presidential race. Plus, I'll be referencing some highly accurate and predictive polling data to give my speculations more, um, "gravitas."
To wit, a new CNN/Gallup/USA Today national poll out this morning shows Dean and Clark separating themselves from the rest of the pack. Absolutely worthless, I know. BUT, we were also treated to a couple of new SUSA polls last night showing Clark starting to eat Dean's dust in New Hampshire (I mean that in a positive way - up until now Clark has been so far behind he couldn't even see Dean's dust) and also taking a surprising 7-point lead in Arizona. I've already mentioned Clark's decent standing in a number of critical post-New Hampshire states like South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Tennessee as well as some March 9 primary states like Texas and Florida.
Clark is clearly on the verge of eclipsing the rest of the field as the anti-Dean option. So much so that he's starting to take direct fire from fellow candidates, most notably John Kerry who sent Jeanne Shaheen out yesterday in Manchester with guns blazing:
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"I just don't think someone who raised money for Republicans, praised George W. Bush after he had begun his systematic reversal of Bill Clinton's policies, and who as recently as this past summer refused to rule out running for president as a Republican should be the Democratic nominee for president."
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Meanwhile, Dean said yesterday he's "tired of being a pincushion" and is fighting to hold on to a victory in Iowa, something that's becoming more and more critical for him given the expectation game.
Assuming the next few weeks do produce a Dean-Clark cage match, it should be quite a spectacle. Let's look at the tale of the tape:
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September 11/Terrorism/War in Iraq
Dean Says:
1) We're no safer against terrorist attack since 9/11.
2) America is no safer since the capture of Saddam Hussein.
3) We needed "permission" from the United Nations to attack Iraq.
Clark Says:
1) He would have already captured Osama bin Laden if he were President
2) He can guarantee with 100% certainty there won't be any future attacks on U.S. soil while he's in office.
3) In October 2002 that "certainly there's a connection between Iraq and Al Qaeda" but argues now that "there was no imminent threat from Iraq, nor was Iraq connected with Al Qaeda."
Conspiracy Theories
Clark Says:
1)There was "some kind of a memo or something" in the Pentagon that he never saw laying out plans to invade seven Middle Eastern countries. Clark says to get an idea of what the "neocons" are planning you need to "listen to the gossip around Washington."
2) Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld leaked his own memo (the infamous "long hard slog" memo) to the press. Asked for proof of the allegation, Clark cited "general Beltway gossip."
3) In the aftermath of September 11 he a received a phone call from "the White House" and/or "people around the White House" and/or "people who had—Middle East think tanks and people like this" pressuring him to say that Saddam Hussein was connected to the terrorist attack.
Dean Says:
It's possible Bush was warned about 9/11 ahead of time by the Saudis.
Military Record
Dean Says:
He didn't serve in the military because of a bad back but suggests to the Quad City Times editorial board that his brother was in the military (he wasn't).
Clark Says:
He has no idea why Hugh Shelton told an audience that his colleague has "integrity and character issues." When asked by Tim Russert last June why he was forced to step down as Supreme Allied Commander Clark says in the same sentence that he was "given a number of reasons" for his dismissal but that "the honest answer is that I don't know."
Abortion
Clark Says:
It's a woman's Constitutional right to have an abortion right up until the very second the fetus' head is exiting the womb with no restrictions or qualifications.
Dean Says:
It's "none of the government's business" and calls the concept of partial birth abortion "nonsense." Dean got a good "yuk" out of the crowd at a NARAL Pro-Choice America dinner last year when he told them that "Vermont is the promised land for you folks." The former doctor went on to explain his opposition to parental notification by telling the story of a 12-year old female patient of his impregnated by her father - a story we later learned on Meet the Press that Dean knew was false when he told it.
There's plenty more floating around from these two surreal candidates running for the highest office in the land, but I'm afraid that's about all I can muster right now. If you know of anything I'm missing, send me an email titled "Two Headed Monster" and I'll try to put them up.
BONUS QUOTE: I can't resist. Tucked neatly into the end of the 9th graf of this rather dramatic LA Times profile of Dean's ascendance to the Governorship of Vermont is this "Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman high-five slapping" quote:
In four years as a legislator, Dean was reliably liberal, recalled Paul Poirier, then a Democratic House leader and later one of Dean's transition officials.
"Howard voted for every increase in spending we pushed for," said Poirier, now a mental health lobbyist.
As if they need any more.
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