John,
I've expected AOL to fall off the face of the planet for a few
months now but it has always come back. I could say the same
for PRST and IOM too. So far, I have made money shorting these
stocks but I am tempted to ride them up as well as down. I wouldn't
mind becoming a long term investor in IOM, but I don't want to be
left holding the bag when AOL collapses. Still, I might go long
on AOL for a quick profit.
ZITL and the other y2k stocks have settled down a bit. After hitting
an intraday low of 35 on Tuesday, ZITL rebounded nicely to close
at 44 with and intraday high of 50. Today, it opened up and is
trading at 47 with a range of two points in either direction. Volume
is still pretty high on this stock. Volume on the other y2k stocks
is back to normal.
ACLY is the only other y2k stock that has better than average volume
today. It had an intraday low of 13 on Tuesday and closed at 19 and
change with an intraday high of 22. It opened up today and is trading
between 20 and 22.
My suggestion would be to short ZITL (if you can get the shares)
before January 6th. ZITL is scheduled to report the results of
a trial of their software and to make some other mysterious
comments. The people on the ZITL thread have hyped this scheduled
press release for days. The actual press release is sure to
disappoint and people will sell into the news in my opinion.
Watch for a run up before the 6th for an opportunity to short.
I would do it myself, but I am fully invested. If you can't short
ZITL, try shorting ACLY since the y2k stocks tend to move together.
I wouldn't bother shorting the other y2k stocks (i.e., CHRZ, VIAS,
TSRI, etc.) because the volume on these stocks has returned to
normal so I'm guessing that they won't move much.
My guess is that the upside risk on ZITL and ACLY is limited. Both
stocks just took a huge tumble on Monday following a meteoric rise
the week before. They both had a predictable bounce on Tuesday and
have settled down to a more narrow trading range today. I think the
momentum money has left or is in the process of leaving so the stocks
should head lower in the short term. I don't think these stocks
can shoot up again so soon after getting hammered.
I think that ZITL will be the next AOL, PRST, NSCP, or IOM in terms
of volatility and heated debate. I remember a few months back when
people on these treads engaged in what seemed like an epic war
between the bulls and bears. These threads seem pretty quiet to me now.
There isn't much new stuff on these threads and everyone who has an
opinion has already expressed it with regard to these stocks. ZITL
and y2k, on the other hand, is new to most people. I think that
ZITL (and the other y2k stocks to a lesser extent) will generate a
lot of interest and debate in the next few months that will result in
wide swings in valuation just like AOL, PRST, NSCP, and IOM did in
their early days. If you play it right, you could make some serious
cash going long and short.
Happy trading :-).
JW |
