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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: jeffbas who wrote (9261)12/10/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris   of 78596
 
>Jurgis, of the ones that have not recovered,
>what percent would you say were merely hype stocks.
> A parabolic rise can reflect a sudden recognition of
>deserved merit or just plain hype.

Hmmm, it's difficult to say. I would say that some
(I don't know what percentage) had valid business models
and valid products. Of course, they were wildly overvalued
but they were not totally pump-and-dump penny stocks.
E.g. look at NETA. There were also competitive landscape
consequences - lots of networking stocks never regained
former glory after being CSCO'd, similarly
semi-equips (AMAT).

If I correctly perceive what you are getting at, it's
difficult to make a convincing case for the fall of the
leaders (CSCO, AMAT, INTC?, MSFT?), even though
they are overpriced. They do have a near-monopoly
position and can always seduce investors with fat
margins and growth rates extrapolated to eternity.
I would not include in this group any company that
is losing money.

Jurgis
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