Doug,
I strongly think you're right about Asia and the pundits. I'm no economist, but I know there are more than a few mulinationals out there that can figure out that currency fluctuations have made Asian products more competitive. CREAF is an example.
I would not be surprised to see companies that report earnings in U.S. dollars (or in local currancies that can't be broken by speculators, like HK$) hustling right now to get orders, denominated in local currencies that have been hard hit (ie: Korea, Singapor) on contract. Then they'll hedge those contracts in the foreign currency futures markets. Building on your comments, if you're correct, I would expect to see Dell, Compaq, Gateway, and maybe IBM) locking in future year's orders at today's bargain basement prices. For CREAF, that would mean substantial new long-term deals; good for earnings forecasts, good for our stock price.
I think you're also right again that medium-term (4-12 months out), thoese currencies will have appreciated against the dollar. I think others may think so too: look at what Treasuries have been doing the last several days.
I would appreciate another post as you see things develping. I'll try to do the same.
r/s
Ben |
