Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX

UOPIX 149.70

-0.5%

Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: John who wrote (924)	12/4/2000 11:59:36 PM
From: Todd Reichardt	Read Replies (1) of 2063

Hi John, By going into into the 1 beta OTC fund you would be scaling back more slowly than AIM would have you scale back. I think you could do roughly the same thing by simply selling only 1/3 of the shares that AIM asks you to sell. 1.5 NDX times 2/3 = 1 NDX, I said roughly because the daily compounding will make it different. By doing this (either the 1/3 sale or the straight transfer of proceeds from sales to the 1 beta fund)would cause your new strategy to have a more bullish bias than a straight AIM. The NDX data available for backtesting will likely show that this is a good modification, because, in general, buying (or not selling) the NDX over the past 14 years or so has been a good thing to do. I suspect you're strategy over the last 10-12 months would have done (much?) worse than AIM. Backtesting is good, but restricting the data you use to the available NDX data will likely give you a system that outperforms AIM when the underlying is in a long term up trend. That may be a big given for the NDX going forward. Todd

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