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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Roebear who wrote (92873)7/30/2001 12:23:00 AM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Thx Roebear. Another interesting item from that url:

"A tripling in the number of rigs drilling new gas wells during the past two years IS beginning to boost production, helping to replenish supplies, according to Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll. Production in the second quarter was up 1.3 percent from a year earlier and may be up as much as 4 percent by the final three months of the year, he said."

Capitalized "IS", added by moi to highlight the reality of emerging production trends vs the denial still evident in numerous posts on certain other SI oil patch threads. Quite a few of these folks keep repeating the false mantra that NG production is going down not up.

Those of you who've been reading my posts regularly here know I've said repeatedly there's a long lag period between the completion of successful NG wells and that production coming on line. And have laid the reasons for that in quite specific detail about a week ago on this thread.

Not entirely surprising that the remaining bulls are grasping at false hopes like the myth of declining NG production. I've worked watched and worked with enough investors in several past Bear Markets to have seen this pattern many times. In each Bear cycle there are a large number of inexperienced investors who'll take their holdings all the way to the final Bear Market "bomb crater" bottom<g> before they finally capitulate and sell.

And that's where the big money and the savvy pros will be waiting to load the freighter for the LT ! The game never changes folks. It's only the names and faces in each new cycle that change.

Back in the 70s and 80s, we could only see stats and an occasional WSJ or BEAR-ONs anecdote from these incredibly inflexible loser types who fight the market throughout the entire down cycle. But with the advent of interned bulletin boards you get to see the amazing rationalizations that sustain the denial even in the face of month after month after month of constant hammering. Got to say it's a fascinating study in investment psychology.

One of the few real quality posters AND traders on one of these other thread recently PMed me quite a convincing argument in favor of my writing a somewhat innovative book on investing. It would combine a lot of my posted themes with some of the denial patterns dramatically displayed by certain web personas.

Since I've considerable respect for this individual (in part because his style and analysis tools are so different from mine) I'm going to probably do it in a few years, once I reach my personal financial objectives. It would probably be a lot of fun.

Isopatch
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