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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 211.60+0.4%12:49 PM EST

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To: chic_hearne who wrote (920)7/17/2000 4:50:05 AM
From: Gopher BrokeRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Chic,

No investment advice, just another opinion of how the next few days might pan out. (At present I hold 300 July contracts, including 100 of $80 and 80 of $90.)

The share price has behaved remarkably well so far moving into expiry. This is abnormal for AMD. I think the options writers have been keeping their powder dry, letting the price find its own level for a couple of days. They only need to push down hard in the two days after earnings.

Question is whether they have enough shares ready for dumping to counteract the shorts that I think will be looking to cover on Thursday/Friday. On balance I am not very confident that AMD can close above $95 on Friday.

Therefore, after staring at spreadsheets over the weekend, I cannot justify the risk of staying with the July calls despite the leverage they give me. I am looking to exit today and buy back after Intel's CC with a smaller amount of July options(enough for some fun but less stress!) plus Jan 01 calls. (I think Intel's CC will bring the market down a bit and AMD with it to produce a short-term roll forward opportunity.)

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
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