handbag, you make a great point, and the past 5 years of history would seem to support you, net-net. We have seen the likes of Libya coming back, but it seems there's been much more going on in the other direction, with Venezuela taking stuff over, Nigeria unrest, Iraq, etc.
Even when geopolitical changes occur we haven't been very good at predicting what impact they will have. The consensus view of what impact that 2nd Iraq war would have, when it began, was that there would be a short-term decrease to oil production but that in the long-term (i.e., by now), oil production would increase dramatically, as all of Iraq's massive undeveloped oil reserves would finally see a drill bit. I don't think many are still holding to that view at this point! |
