Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Process Boy who wrote (93078)	2/14/2000 7:12:00 PM
From: Gopher Broke	Read Replies (1) of 1576152

PB, <<In 18 years this has never been my experience to date>> I could say that it is better to look to the future than to the past. Or perhaps that every empire collapses sooner or later. Of course Intel could continue to dominate for another ten years. But I now believe that this would require both perfect execution on Willamette AND a major AMD screw up. So, realistically, where do you think Intel stock would be if AMD took 40% of the CPU market? It would not require a major disaster scenario for this to happen, simply a continuation of the gradual transition we see at present. Even so, coupled with increased competition and reduced ASPs Intel's profits could decrease tenfold as a result. Would the shareholders remain faithful? Even Paul, who is a staunch Intellabee, is to canny to remain 100% committed to Intel - he is diversifying into AMD of all companies. I was astounded to see he had shifted 18% of his portfolio into AMD. Incidentally, I do think that Intel's current thrust for diversification is the right route to take, but it is probably a year too late to prevent a nasty transitional period.

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