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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: James Silverman who wrote (931)7/10/1997 10:54:00 PM
From: JOHN W.   of 6136
 
Historically, it has been proven to be a very BEARISH SIGN. There are some that still believe that it is a sign of future buying strength. Have you ever heard anything about the great "short squeeze plays" of the 80s?

A plausible argument could be made that AGPH is overvalued. And due to it's volatility over the last year, it can be a great (but very dangerous) short play. Then again look at how overvalued the large cap stocks are and in some sectors the whole market.

Do a valuation comparison with a sim company. I did this a week ago with VRTX. I was shocked to discover the market cap comparison. AGPH had a market cap of only 236 mil more than VRTX. Compare: sim design approach, large corporate partners, and first major drug is a PI. The major difference is AGPH has proven itself; it has got their drug approved by the FDA, demonstrated the ability to market the drug, and are selling the product beyond even the analyst expectations. They have significantly more patents and a much more explosive potential pipeline than VRTX. Even if VRTX can get VX-478 on the market 18-24 months from now, there is no reason I know of that it will prove superior to Viracept. And all of this assumes everything goes perfectly until the NDA in late 98-early 99. Now that 236 mil doesnt seem like that much more, does it. I am sure "doctor dave" is going to chew this post to pieces since he is an expert on shorting and talks to VRTX scientists whenever he needs to in order to simulate credibilty on this thread. The 236 mil number might be different now and it is possible that all I have proven is VRTX will tank when AGPH does. I think dave should short VRTX.

Regards, John.
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