From one of the few AOLers that has not lost it. That board is now called The Yahoo II NaNaNaNaNa Board. UnBelievable!
Subject: A Few Thoughts....
Date: 12/5/98 1:41 PM EST
From: KSully7645
Message-id: <19981205134123.25524.00000353@ng15.aol.com>
Comments by Elena Teleguina, Russia's Deputy Energy Minister, have recieved little to no discussion on the AIPN message boards. Said comments, however, have and hold "profound" implications for the Caspian Region as a whole and Kazakstan in particular.
In brief:
Moscow to complete gas and electricity suply deals with China within the next few months.
Talks between giant Russian gas monopoly Gazprom and Stockholm on a new pipeline which could dramatically increase Russian gas supplies to Sweden were also expected to make progress within the next six to 10 months.
"We have a very optimistic view on the progect to develope gas to China," ..."Most of the decisions have been taken or will be taken probably in the next couple of months."
Russia's main energy priority was to develop new markets in Asia, with plans for multi-billion dollar investments in progects involving China, Japan, Iran and India.
Gazprom- which has contracts to provide Western Eorope with 2.7 trillion cubic metres of gas between now and 2025 - was also keen to profit from the liberalisation of the European Union electricity and gas markets in 1999 and 2000 respectively, to increase supplies to the 15 - nation block in general and to Scandinavia in particular.
Moscow also hoped to reach an agreement with the Central Asian republics early next year on the creation of a National Barter Corporation. The corporation, expected to be made up of government departments and industries, is designed to get around the problem of companies not paying their bills.
Discussion....
The pending "gas deal" with respect to AIPN most likely will be a "small scale" undertaking initially. There is concensus on this board that a "gas deal" is imminent. The "size and scope" of any gas deal pertaining to AIPN is an open debate. Enough evidence in regards to immediate markets and current infrastructure suggests small scale operations with respect to the Kaz Concession. But for how long?
Comments by Elena Teleguina more or less have tipped off Russia's approach to the Caspian Region. This approach, and in so many words, is to "monopolize" the gas industry.
AIPN drilling for gas is a drop in the bucket as to what will eventually emerge gas wise in the region. Kazakstan has been playing oil close to the chest and have effectively extended to Russia and China only a token interest of such resources.
China has coal. To get along with its neighbors, however, China must convert to gas. Resource Economics should be viewed as discounted to Environmental Economics. China is experiencing trading problems with its neighbors due to environmental concerns regarding its extensive use of coal (most abundant resource in China). By taking agressive measures to secure and implement gas of which is more enviromentally sound - the costs and investments to do so
hosts a payback in added trade growth and better international relations.
Bolstering such aggressive moves by China toward gas is that "now" is the best time to do so. Oil development in the Caspian Region is being derailed due to world oil prices. China has "not" conducted a major deal all year depsite having demonstrated a willingness to pay "substantial" premiums to secure oil and gas resources going foward. By stepping up to the plate to secure gas, China will position itself very well to secure future oil interests in
the region as well.
Gas is a wide open commodity in the Caspian Region where the "future market" of said gas is "China". Kazakstan will continue to hold oil close to its chest. Gas, however, has been reserved for the likes of Russia and China. Within the next 6 months, IMO, Russia and China will dominate the gas resources of the Caspian. As for AIPN, review their list of appointments like Holstein. AIPN itself has indicated a direction toward China. With the appointment
of CS First Boston, AIPN has indicated a direction toward Russia.
As always, connect your own dots and arrive at your own underlying opinions. As for me, I hope to pay China a visit someday to look at the Great Wall of China and to walk the distance of the Great Pipeline of China.
KSully
DrRisk thx KSully |
